Horowitz, M., Kreps, S., & Fuhrmann, M. (2016). The Consequences of Drone Proliferation: Separating Fact from Fiction. Retrieved from http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2722311
Singer, P. (2013). The Predator Comes Home: A Primer on Domestic Drones, their Huge Business Opportunities, and their Deep Political, Moral and Legal Challenges. https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-predator-comes-home-a-primer-on-domestic-drones-their-huge-business-opportunities-and-their-deep-political-moral-and-legal-challenges/
Reed, J. (2012). The skies open up for large civilian drones. Retrieved from http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-19397816
DeGramo, M. (2004). Issues Concerning Integration of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in Civil Airspace. MITRE Center for Advanced Aviation Systems Development. Retrieved from https://www.mitre.org/sites/default/files/pdf/04_1232.pdf
The Future of the UAS
Horowitz, Kreps, & Fuhrmann state that of future military drone technology will really be focused on stealth and protecting any vulnerability to opposition air defense (2016). As technology becomes cheaper and more affordable, countries like Pakistan and Nigeria are purchasing UAV systems from China (Horowitz, Kreps, & Fuhrmann, 2016). However, these are still limited compared to the Predator Reaper of the United States (Horowitz, et al., 2016). Platform limitations could potentially change with UAS commercial advancements (Horowitz, et al., 2016). Even with the United States staying ahead of other countries with the next generation of Navy's UCLASS program, which expands the ammunitions on board capability beyond that of the limits of Predator and Reaper (Horowitz, et al., 2016). The latter both carry only Hellfire missiles, but the UCLASS UAS will be able to handle a variety of ammunitions (Horowitz, et al., 2016). Still other countries will benefit as technologies are pushed in the commercial sector (Horowitz, et al., 2016).
Military technologies based on underlying commercial capabilities generally experience faster relative price declines than military technologies such as stealth, which only have military markets. As the commercial drone market continues growing around the world, price competition for the high-end commercial market is likely to make more capabilities (excluding the military aspects of those capabilities, such as the most advanced surveillance packages and launching weapons) available at a lower price point (Horowitz, Kreps, & Fuhrmann, 2016).
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UAS Blog
The future of UAS in both military and civilian applications could be drastically different to the field of systems we see today. Peter Singer draws the parallel of UAS development alike to the auto industry, when the first horseless carriages were first being uses with little to no regulation (2013). The innovations of turn signals resulted from moving bright reflective rings from the drivers that would hand signal when making a turn, to placing turn signal lights on cars (Singer, 2013). This seems very basic, but I agree and can see how we are on the precipice of commercial UAS operations becoming common place. But, there is the hurdle of UAS National Airspace System (NAS) integration, leveraging Next Generation Air Transportation System (Next Gen) technologies to both manned and unmanned aircraft.
The next leap for UAS civilian operations may be transporting cargo, and ultimately one day when the public is ready serving as a passenger aircraft (Reed, 2012). There still remains the challenge for sense and avoid technology for UAS operations around other manned aircraft, and ultimately safe and reliable enough for on-board passenger transport. Integrating into the NAS, and aligning with technologies already being implemented with the effort for the Next Generation Air Transportation System (Next Gen) will be vital to expand UAS operations (DeGramo, 2004). Commercializing UAS operations is going to push the technology and solutions to mitigate sense and avoid issues today and increase operations tomorrow.
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